Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 10.3 | 18% | 105 | 0.91% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 9.7 | 18% | 105 | 0.77% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 9.0 | 14.2% | 83 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 8.7 | 17.3% | 101 | 0.74% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 5.1 | 9.6% | 56 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.6 | 8.1% | 47 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4.0 | 7.2% | 42 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 2 | 4.6 | 7.5% | 44 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 59 | 56.0 | 100% | 583 | 0.56% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 13600 | 58013 | 488 | 117 | 556 |
| Sep 19 | 13675 | 58182 | 488 | 117 | 591 |
| Sep 20 | 13676 | 58249 | 488 | 117 | 513 |
| Sep 21 | 13751 | 58329 | 488 | 117 | 498 |
| Sep 22 | 13783 | 58473 | 492 | 117 | 525 |
| Sep 23 | 13831 | 58681 | 494 | 119 | 573 |
| Sep 24 | 13890 | 58873 | 493 | 119 | 583 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 8963 | 34151 | 362 | 103 | 460 |
| Sep 19 | 8971 | 34229 | 364 | 103 | 434 |
| Sep 20 | 9009 | 34288 | 365 | 103 | 412 |
| Sep 21 | 9062 | 34354 | 369 | 103 | 396 |
| Sep 22 | 9091 | 34460 | 371 | 104 | 423 |
| Sep 23 | 9169 | 34596 | 373 | 104 | 482 |
| Sep 24 | 9244 | 34740 | 374 | 105 | 505 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 6.7 | 12.3% | 62 | 0.8% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 14.9 | 27.7% | 140 | 1.67% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 6.6 | 13.7% | 69 | 0.97% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 6.9 | 14.3% | 72 | 0.86% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 5.1 | 9.9% | 50 | 0.64% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 3.1 | 6.9% | 35 | 0.36% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2.9 | 5.5% | 28 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 8 | 5.4 | 9.7% | 49 | 0.69% |
| All ages | 75 | 51.6 | 100% | 505 | 0.78% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 6843 | 22799 | 340 | 85 | 400 |
| Sep 19 | 6887 | 22850 | 342 | 85 | 411 |
| Sep 20 | 6926 | 22874 | 343 | 85 | 402 |
| Sep 21 | 6984 | 22910 | 347 | 85 | 419 |
| Sep 22 | 7018 | 22997 | 348 | 85 | 436 |
| Sep 23 | 7077 | 23043 | 349 | 85 | 483 |
| Sep 24 | 7130 | 23120 | 350 | 85 | 513 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.1 | 9.6% | 49 | 0.9% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 10.7 | 19.3% | 99 | 1.82% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 5.6 | 13.1% | 67 | 1.48% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 7.6 | 14.6% | 75 | 1.38% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 5.3 | 13.1% | 67 | 1.35% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 6.1 | 11.9% | 61 | 0.9% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 6.3 | 11.1% | 57 | 0.9% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.9 | 7.4% | 38 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 53 | 49.6 | 100% | 513 | 1.13% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 14573 | 66302 | 573 | 99 | 524 |
| Sep 19 | 14616 | 66396 | 574 | 99 | 527 |
| Sep 20 | 14648 | 66507 | 575 | 99 | 509 |
| Sep 21 | 14691 | 66662 | 583 | 99 | 500 |
| Sep 22 | 14731 | 66798 | 584 | 99 | 535 |
| Sep 23 | 14794 | 67033 | 588 | 100 | 569 |
| Sep 24 | 14870 | 67255 | 591 | 101 | 606 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 7.9 | 11.7% | 71 | 0.6% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 7.7 | 14.7% | 89 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 11.3 | 19.1% | 116 | 0.55% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 8.0 | 15.8% | 96 | 0.71% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 4.3 | 11.6% | 70 | 0.51% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 4.1 | 10.4% | 63 | 0.44% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 4.3 | 7.8% | 47 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 10 | 3.6 | 8.9% | 54 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 76 | 51.1 | 100% | 606 | 0.51% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 51388 | 396874 | 1807 | 327 | 1542 |
| Sep 19 | 51461 | 397500 | 1810 | 327 | 1446 |
| Sep 20 | 51542 | 397971 | 1813 | 327 | 1419 |
| Sep 21 | 51844 | 398642 | 1807 | 327 | 1588 |
| Sep 22 | 51946 | 399506 | 1813 | 327 | 1661 |
| Sep 23 | 52107 | 400839 | 1816 | 327 | 1798 |
| Sep 24 | 52256 | 401644 | 1819 | 331 | 1816 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 24 | 23.3 | 12.9% | 234 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 27 | 33.3 | 20.5% | 372 | 0.52% |
| 20-29 | 30 | 34.9 | 20.5% | 373 | 0.36% |
| 30-39 | 19 | 22.0 | 13.5% | 245 | 0.32% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 17.1 | 10.4% | 189 | 0.29% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 16.6 | 9.7% | 176 | 0.27% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 10.3 | 6.4% | 117 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 10 | 10.6 | 6.1% | 110 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 149 | 168.0 | 100% | 1816 | 0.33% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 697281 | 3268342 | 37634 | 7833 | 23033 |
| Sep 19 | 699223 | 3276148 | 37709 | 7835 | 23315 |
| Sep 20 | 700759 | 3280596 | 37770 | 7837 | 22516 |
| Sep 21 | 704434 | 3288101 | 37935 | 7854 | 23814 |
| Sep 22 | 707084 | 3296228 | 38064 | 7876 | 25881 |
| Sep 23 | 710145 | 3307794 | 38183 | 7895 | 28518 |
| Sep 24 | 712827 | 3317741 | 38288 | 7912 | 29110 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 318 | 339.1 | 12.2% | 3554 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 604 | 605.0 | 21.6% | 6297 | 0.83% |
| 20-29 | 333 | 343.9 | 13% | 3795 | 0.5% |
| 30-39 | 358 | 404.0 | 15.1% | 4405 | 0.58% |
| 40-49 | 376 | 343.0 | 12.7% | 3683 | 0.53% |
| 50-59 | 296 | 289.7 | 10.6% | 3096 | 0.38% |
| 60-69 | 235 | 214.9 | 7.9% | 2302 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 162 | 187.6 | 6.8% | 1978 | 0.31% |
| All ages | 2682 | 2727.1 | 100% | 29110 | 0.5% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-10-16 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7504"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges